![]() No one is good at predicting the longer-term or even medium-term outcomes of these radical technological changes (we can do the short term, albeit imperfectly). ![]() No one at the beginning of the fossil fuel era had much of an idea of the changes it would bring. The reality is that no one at the beginning of the printing press had any real idea of the changes it would bring. No matter how positive or negative the overall calculus of cost and benefit, AI is very likely to overturn most of our apple carts, most of all for the so-called chattering classes. We have absolutely no idea how AI will go, it’s radically uncertain: Now Tyler Cowen of Marginal Revolution tries his hand at this argument. When you have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA when something will happen, sometimes the answer turns out to be “soon”. Since 2017, AI has moved faster than most people expected GPT-4 sort of qualifies as an AGI, the kind of AI most people were saying was decades away. Eliezer didn’t realize that at our level, you can just name fallacies.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |